提供点弹药,美国国家地质局关于地震预测的科普……
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/faq.php?categoryID=6&faqID=13
FAQ - Common Myths about Earthquakes
Q: Can you predict earthquakes?
A: No. Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California.
The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.
For further information, see:
Earthquake Prediction
大意: 俺们美国的科学家们不能预测大地震,也不知道如何预测,而且,俺们也不期望能精确预测到近期地震,只能做远期几率估测。
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本帖最后由 天涯蔷薇 于 2008-5-16 04:43 编辑 ]